News & Articles Q4 GDP growth seen lower

Q4 GDP growth seen lower


17 Feb 2016
Q4 GDP growth seen lower
Malaysia's economy is expected to slow down in the final quarter (Q4) of 2015, although the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annual growth rate for the full year would still be within the official forecast.

Hong Leong Bank's Head of Fixed Income & Economic Research Choong Yin Pheng said her firm predicts the GDP to expand moderately by 4.3 per cent in Q4 2015, making the full-year GDP at 4.9 per cent.

She said that would be within the country's official growth target of between 4.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent.

It's still a growth in Q4, but a bit of a slowdown amid a moderation in domestic demand and softer exports.

"We still have ample international reserves of around US$95 billion and I guess it will continue to remain sufficient," she told Bernama in conjunction with the release of the Q4 GDP data tomorrow.

Malaysia registered a strong economic growth of 5.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2015 with the private sector remaining the anchor of growth, but slipped to 4.9 per cent in Q2 and 4.7 per cent in Q3.

Meanwhile, for Q1 2016, Choong said GDP growth could still hit four per cent.

"Overall, despite the moderation, we still see private consumption coming in as a main pillar of growth.

"And the boost from festive seasons will support GDP growth for Q1 2016,¡v she said, adding the ringgit is expected to remain volatile.

"It could weaken slightly before strengthening to levels of 4.10 - 4.15 by the end of Q1 2016," she said.

The government, in a recalibrated Budget 2016 last month, has revised the GDP projection for 2016 to 4-4.5 per cent from the previous target of 4-5 per cent, to reflect its new assumption of Brent crude oil price of US$30-35 a barrel.

The Budget 2016 announced last year assumed a crude oil price of US$48 a barrel.

Choong said the government has made a realistic forecast, given how things have evolved, amid the lower crude oil prices and softer global economic outlook.

Source: Mysinchew.com

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